1、 How to see the current economic situation, especially the operation trend of the machinery industry

From the perspective of the whole machinery industry, in 2014, domestic demand declined and exports increased. In 2015, both exports and domestic demand declined, and corporate profits declined significantly. The situation of the machine tool industry is similar to that of the whole machinery industry, but the machine tool industry is more difficult. It should be emphasized that the problems we encounter are not cyclical. It is not said that the situation will change for the better in a few years. We must lose the illusion of waiting for the next round of economic peak. The central government's estimate of the economic situation in the next few years is that the international economy needs to be further adjusted, the domestic economic downturn has not yet bottomed out, and 2016 may be more difficult than 2015. Therefore, we should be mentally prepared for a long and arduous struggle, adhere to a protracted war strategically, and fight a good war of annihilation tactically.

When it comes to equipment manufacturing, the situation is even worse because of the close relationship with fixed asset investment. According to relevant analysis, the growth of most fixed asset investments, including infrastructure, has hit the ceiling. Another round of large-scale economic stimulus is neither desirable nor feasible. The machine tool industry is more closely related to the investment in fixed assets. It is impossible to return to the situation in 2010 and 2011. We must have a long-term ideological preparation. When considering the problem, we should put more emphasis on the difficulties.

The contradictions and problems we have encountered in the near future have shown four drops and one rise, that is, the economic growth has declined, the factory prices of industrial products have declined, corporate profits have declined, the growth rate of financial revenue has declined, and the probability of risks has increased. The central government judges that the economic situation in 2016 is weak recovery. It can be seen that the economic situation we are facing is very serious and difficult. Once again, we stress that everyone must be mentally prepared.

2、 How to do in the machine tool industry under the new normal

The problems we have encountered have been accumulated by high-speed growth and development for a long time in the past. Although these problems should also be solved through development, they must not be solved by the development of the original traditional concepts, ideas and models. The current problems cannot be solved by traditional development methods.

Although the problems encountered by the equipment manufacturing industry are not as serious as those in the raw material industry, overcapacity is also very prominent. Relatively better, many sub industries in the equipment manufacturing industry are not absolutely overcapacity, but more structural overcapacity. Take the machine tool industry as an example, ordinary machine tool products are the main ones with serious overcapacity.

The Central Economic Work Conference proposed five major tasks for structural reform in 2016, one of which is capacity reduction, which is mainly divided into three categories: first, the government will introduce specific policies and methods for several high-capacity industries; The second is to propose the task of dealing with "zombie enterprises" for individual industries; Third, for most industries, it is to guide the implementation of mergers and acquisitions. Under this situation, our machine tool industry must make great efforts to deal with overcapacity. It can be predicted that industries that do better in dealing with overcapacity in the future will have a better life.

1. Government actions.

At present, the central government takes the situation into account, appropriately expands domestic demand, and at the same time speeds up the supply side reform, making efforts from both the demand side and the supply side. However, it pays more attention to the supply side structural reform, and wants to achieve a high level of supply and demand balance from a low level of supply and demand balance. It has introduced five policy pillars, namely, the macro policy should be stable, the industrial policy should be accurate, the micro policy should be flexible, the reform policy should be practical, and the social policy should be underpinned. In 2016, the government will also moderately increase the fiscal deficit, mainly to support the reduction of taxes and fees. In particular, it also proposed to study reducing the manufacturing value-added tax rate.

Entrusted by the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is formulating a three-year action plan for stable growth, structural adjustment, transformation, upgrading, cost reduction and efficiency increase in 11 industries, including automobiles and machinery. In 2016, the central government also implemented three special actions to stabilize growth, adjust the structure and promote transformation. First, the special action to improve the supply of consumer goods; Second, special actions to reduce costs and increase efficiency; Third, special actions to upgrade the manufacturing industry. Among them, the special actions for upgrading the manufacturing industry mainly rely on Made in China 2025, and the special actions for cost reduction and efficiency increase also have many specific contents, including reducing the financial cost and system cost of enterprises, clearing up taxes for enterprises, and the financial sector making profits for the real economy.

As the industry management department, I hope and have been trying to bring the machinery industry, especially the machine tool industry, into the scope of a series of new government policy support.

2. The way out for the enterprise.

As we all know, machine tools are the mother machine of the equipment manufacturing industry, but at present, the advanced production equipment of enterprises is basically imported, and it is more difficult for domestic machine tools and equipment to enter the fields of aviation, aerospace, automobile, electronics and integrated circuits. To build a manufacturing power, it depends not only on whether the products we produce reach the world-class level, but also on whether the equipment used to produce these products is made in China. Therefore, the key to a manufacturing power is to see whether the machine tool equipment can be self-sufficient. If the machine tool is imported, the connotation of a manufacturing power is not enough.

In the process of economic development in the future, the total demand will not grow too much, especially with the implementation of intelligent manufacturing, enterprises will not need so much capacity after their efficiency has been greatly improved. If the enterprise cannot improve its own technology, products and competitiveness and still stay in the original development mode, it will be difficult to achieve transformation and upgrading. Therefore, enterprises must innovate, have decent products, and never stay at the low level, low quality, low reliability stage. Under the new normal, innovation will be the only way for enterprises.